The Washington Post ran this story yesterday (Oct 9): The ominous math of the Ebola epidemic
The article says that Tom Frieden, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “urged world leaders to work quickly to combat the spread of the Ebola virus”, basically saying that not enough is currently being done to slow the spread of the virus. Because the spread of the virus is exponential, a difficult problem today is only much worse tomorrow. At current rates, the few thousand cases of today will turn into an estimated “1.4 million” by January.
It all comes down to the math of how fast the virus spreads versus how quickly officials are able to contain it. And right now the “math still favors the virus”.
“The virus is moving on virus time; we’re moving on bureaucracy or program time,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “The virus is actually picking up the pace. Even as we add resources, we get farther behind.”
If this is not turned around soon, then the numbers will overwhelm any possible response that can be done. At that point, a second and more dire scenario may play out:
The conventional methods come too late, the epidemic keeps spreading, and the virus is beaten back only when vaccines can be developed and scaled up to the point where they can be widely distributed.
Thankfully, they seem to have at least one vaccine (ZMapp) that seems to work incredibly well, but unfortunately at present they can only manufacture extremely small amounts of it at a time. Presumably, they will get around these manufacturing issues, but that will take time.
While most of the problem is in West Africa, increasing cases will spread to other parts of the world causing some degree of panic as well as volatility to the financial markets. Thus, as a basic precautionary measure, it would be good to have canned goods on hand in case it becomes problematic to go to the stores.
Interestingly, the man from Liberia who brought the first uncontained case of Ebola into the U.S., entered the U.S. on Sept 20th and became ill on the 24th which is the day they say he became contagious (see timeline here). That is also the first day of the Shemitah year, the year I have been concerned about after reading The Harbinger.
If the Harbinger is correct and a third Shemitah year is in the process of playing out (2001 and 2008 being the other two), then I would expect increasing volatility this year, including further events that will cause even more instability, culminating next September with a market crash larger than the 2008 recession. Of course the whole point of the Harbinger is to wake us up. God promises to heal the land of those who humble themselves:
2Ch 7:14 “If My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land.”